TRADE RECOMMENDATION - 25.04.2021

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

I had informed that I had COVID symptoms, which was subsequently tested positive. I am recovering well in self-isolation and so I thought would update you all.

How relevant are our investment related activities and my synthesis in the wake of raging pandemic with thousands of people dying? I am sure each one of us is contributing in some way or other, first and foremost being safe ourselves. Contributing in some way to the society and immediate neighbourhood is the best we can do.

Investment activity and what it does to our lives is not something which can be ignored because whether it is good health or sickness it is going to play its part. Now viewing things dispassionately let us see what is in store.

Short recommendation was given in Nifty sometime ago and when the first target was hit it was suggested to book part profit.

In Nifty weekly chart a lower low lower high formation can be seen with a series of small body candles. This formation generally indicates further fall in markets likely. Further short signal in Nifty was given by the system on 22.04.21 at 14406. Various proprietary indicators are giving the “feel” that a precipitous fall in the market is likely which might take Nifty to 13634 levels.

Doing intermarket analysis is not giving a comforting view. The rupee outlook with respect to USD is grim, which generally is a leading indicator.

Some of you might be wondering why a trade recommendation suddenly gets closed due to system exit. The reason is system is actively checking all the filters and gives exit accordingly. Due to this reason sometimes, lower profit is realized but the point here is we are not second guessing anything and trying to hold on to a losing position. As per my experience it is a very disheartening feeling when a winning position turns into a loss. This stems from a rigid view not in alignment with market happenings.

USD/INR: Last close – 75.05. This currency pair had hit all time low of 77.07 on 16.04.2020 and presently there is a indication that it is going to re-visit that zone after a brief bounce to 74.0-74.50 levels. Recommend to short on Rupee (Or go long on USD) when it bounces to those levels, with stop loss at 73.50.

Target 1 – 77.07. Leverage -0.5x.

Minor trend : Down, Intermediate trend : Down, Long term trend : Down.

GOLD: Last close – 47532.0 (MCX PRICE). It was recommended to go long on Gold on 21.03.21 at 44931 and exceeded the target of 47237.0 . Exit signal was given on 22.04.21 at 47772.0 giving an absolute profit of 6.32%. The exit is for short term traders only. Long-term investors to continue their holding in Gold.

SILVER: Last close – 68333.0. Go long in silver between 67477.0 to 68113.0 with stop loss at 67200.0.

Target 1: 74160.0, Leverage – 0.2x

Minimum profit potential – 8.9% , Asset allocation profit potential – 1.8%

Minor trend : Up, Intermediate trend : Up, Long term trend : Neutral.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

MARKET & NIFTY OVERVIEW

Nifty Last close – 14341.00. The shorting opportunity came on 06.04.21 at 14675.00 and 1st target of 14350.0 was achieved on 12.04.21, where it was recommended to book part profit.

System has given short signal again at 14406.0 on 22.04.21. The targets given are revised now,

Target 1 – 14050.0 , Target 2 – 13634.0, Leverage –2.0x

Minimum profit potential – 2.5% , Asset allocation profit potential – 6.8%

Minor trend : Down, Intermediate trend : Down, Long term trend : Up.

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

1. TITAN: Last close - Recommended price – 1497.0 to 1510.0 to go long, with stop loss of 1432.0 on 28.03.21. System gave exit on 13.04.21 at 1530.60 giving an absolute profit of 1.64%. Trade recommendation closed. The profit could have been higher but we did not know that the minor trend would reverse suddenly.

2. EICHER MOTORS: Last close – 2317.30. Recommended price – 2572.0 to 2587.0 to go short with stop loss of 2670.0 on 28.03.21. Presenile at an absolute profit of 10.17%. Continue to hold short position.

Target1 – 2500.8 (Achieved), Target 2 – 2434.2 (Achieved), Target 3 – 2263.0, Target 4 – 2082.0. Leverage 0.1x.

Minimum profit potential – 3.7% (Achieved), Asset allocation profit potential – 0.37%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Down, Long term trend – Down.

3. BRITTANIA: Recommended price – 3605.0 to 3622.0 to go long with a stop loss of 3546.0 on 04.04.21. System gave exit on 13.04.21 at 3745.0 giving an absolute profit of 3.5%. Trade recommendation closed.

4. HCL TECH: Last close – 1045.40. Recommended price – 971.0 to 986.0 to go long, with stop loss 949.0 on 14.03.21. System gave exit on 13.04.21 at 983.40 giving an absolute profit of 0.42%. Trade recommendation closed.

NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Nifty , USD / INR & Silver as mentioned above.

1. BAJAJ FINANCE: Last close – 4667.8. Recommended to go short between 4690.0 to 4720.0 with stop loss of 4874.0 .

Target1 – 4285.0, Target 2 – 4081.2, Leverage 0.1x.

Minimum profit potential – 8.6%,.Asset allocation profit potential – 0.86%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Neutral, Long term trend – Up.

2. DLF: Last close – 241.99. Wait for minor bounce till 252.0-256.0 levels and go short with stop loss at 263.0.

Target1 – 225.0, Target 2 – 215.0, Leverage 0.1x.

Minimum profit potential – 10.7%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.07%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Down, Long term trend – Down.

3. GAIL: Last close – 129.40. Recommended to go short at these levels with stop loss at 138.30.

Target1 – 114.7, Target 2 – To be updated later, Leverage 0.1x.

Minimum profit potential – 11.4%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.14%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Neutral with downward tendencies, Long term trend – Up.

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 2.0x

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: 9.0%

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 5 DAYS TO 45 DAYS.

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 3.0X

SINCE INCEPTION SYSTEM HAS DELIVERED A RETURN OF 34.88%, OVER A 9 MONTH PERIOD, UNDERPERFORMING THE NIFTY BY 0.32%.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.pdf

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