TRADE RECOMMENDATION 04.04.2021

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

In my last week’s report, I had mentioned that based on my system there is possibility of further fall in the market but a moderate recovery was seen and system has given an exit on 30.03.21 at 14845, yielding very little profit. When we try to capture longer term trend and especially during its initial phases of its formation there is always this risk of losing existing profit or even a loss sometimes. The risk and reward are generally based on individual’s preference. For now, even though we have seen a bounce the downward bias hasn’t gone away and lingering on like a bad odour. There might be an opportunity to short at higher levels provided there is a system signal.

Generally I would have asked to hold short position in favour of a possibility of a intermediate downtrend but there is one particular observation which is preventing me to do it and that is the “rule of alternation” as per Elliot wave analysis. As per that, if it is flattish correction then the inherent bouncing around would chop the trading capital by means of frequent stop losses. Anyway further wave structure as it unfolds would definitely give more clues.

India VIX has been around 19 levels and “quiet” I should say, which generally indicates that a crash is not on the cards for now. Since August 2020 it has been fluctuating in a narrow band but it has a notorious reputation of spiking after prolonged quiet periods.

Now talking about something different is PE multiples of Nifty 500 which is at 36, which is at all time high. This means market is not trading at its value levels. Though for a trading model this is not applicable , for long term fund deployment it is good to watch market PE.

Gold: Last close – 44767.0 (MCX PRICE). There is no change in my view on Gold from last week’s report. Short term traders continue to hold long position recommended on 21.03.21 at 44931.0 with stop loss at 44150.0. For long-term investors gradual accumulation has to continue.

Target 1 – 47237.0, Target 2 – To be updated , Leverage -0.2x.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

MARKET & NIFTY OVERVIEW

Nifty Last close – 14867.00. The shorting opportunity came on 23.03.21 at 14878.80 and system gave exit on 30.03.21 at 14845.0, hardly yielding any profit. Trade recommendation closed.

Conclusion: There is downward bias in Nifty but have to wait for system confirmation.

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

1. SBI: Last close – 370.65. Recommended price – 382.90 to 385.0 to go short on 07.03.21, with stop loss 403.50. System gave an exit on 30.03.21 at 360.80 giving an absolute profit of 5.96%. Trade recommendation closed.

2. DLF: Last close – 291.80. Recommended price – 311.0 to 307.0 to go short, with stop loss 324.0 on 14.03.21. System gave an exit on 31.03.21 at 287.05 giving an absolute profit of 6.84%. Trade recommendation closed.

3. HCL TECH: Last close – 1002.60. Recommended price – 971.0 to 986.0 to go long, with stop loss 949.0. Presently on an absolute profit of 2.38%. Continue to hold long position.

Target 1 – 1055.95 , Target 2 – NA, Leverage – 0.10x

Minimum profit potential – 7.8% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.78%

Minor trend : Neutral, Intermediate trend : Up, Long term trend : Up.

4. MARUTI SUZUKI: Last close – 6923.90. Recommended price – 7120.0 to 7180.0 to go short, with stop loss of 7380.0. System gave an exit on 31.03.21 at 6859.20 giving an absolute profit of 3.68%. The second short recommendation given on 28.03.21 at 6754.45 resulted in a loss of 1.55%. Trade recommendation closed.

5. TITAN: Last close - 1559.35. Recommended price – 1497.0 to 1510.0 to go long, with stop loss of 1432.0 on 28.03.21. Presently on an absolute loss of 3.55%. Continue to hold long position.

Target 1 – 1673.0, Target 2 –NA, Leverage – 0.10x

Minimum profit potential – 11.1% , Asset allocation profit potential – 1.11%

Minor trend : Up, Intermediate trend : Up , Long term trend : Up.

6. EICHER MOTORS: Last close – 2580.55. Recommended price – 2572.0 to 2587.0 to go short with stop loss of 2670.0 on 28.03.21. Continue to hold short position.

Target1 – 2500.8, Target 2 – NA, Leverage 0.1x.

Minimum profit potential – 3.7% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.37%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Neutral with downward tendencies, Long term trend – Neutral.

NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATION

1. ACC: Last close – 1913.79. Recommended price – 1902.0 to 1920.0 to go long with a stop loss of 1858.0.

Target1 – 2000.8, Target 2 – NA, Leverage 0.1x.

Minimum profit potential – 4.5% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.45%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up , Long term trend – Up.

2. BRITTANIA: 3618.5. Recommended price – 3605.0 to 3622.0 to go long with a stop loss of 3546.0.

Target1 – 3959.0, Target 2 – NA, Leverage 0.05x.

Minimum profit potential – 9.4% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.47%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up , Long term trend – Neutral with upward tendencies.

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 0.15

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: 0.92%

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 10 DAYS TO 30 DAYS

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 0.65X

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.pdf

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