TRADE RECOMMENDATION - 02.05.21

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

I had given a short recommendation in Nifty on at 14406 last week but there was a short covering minor rally which triggered stop loss in it. The short recommendation given on 06.04.21 is still valid. Once in a while market will whack you and good money management principles is what will help to weather these out and give consistent returns. Tweaking a system for minor setbacks is not going to help either because a trading system needs to be accurate more of often than not. The idea is to make reasonable profit with protection to capital.

During this minor rally there were a spate of recommendations of stratospheric levels of Nifty especially in a very popular financial portal. I don’t know on what basis such predictions are made but such predictions if based on very short-term indicators, traders cannot make a positional trade. Maybe well-designed intraday systems work but one needs to be glued to the market. Many a times I see signals emerging from intraday patterns and indicators but I refrain from making recommendations based on it because the decision-making time is too short to benefit anyone.

At the moment I don’t have a clear signal in the system in Nifty, but a short signal is most likely to time during the week. I will try to update in due course. Rest I still hold to my view what I had shared last week.

USD/INR: Last close – 74.73. Continue to hold long recommendation given on this currency pair on 25.04.21 at 74.50. with stop loss at 73.50. All the indications given for this trade remain valid. Presently at an absolute profit of 0.31%.

Target 1 – 77.07. Leverage -0.5x.

Minor trend : Down, Intermediate trend : Down, Long term trend : Down.

GOLD: There is no recommendation to make in gold for now

SILVER: On report dated 25.04.21 I had recommended to go long in silver between 67477.0 to 68113.0 with stop loss at 67200.0, however running the daily system I have checked and there is still no buy signal in silver. This recommendation stands negated for now, until further update.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

MARKET & NIFTY OVERVIEW

Nifty Last close – 14631.00. In the writeup above I have discussed in detail about managing positions. As of now 50% of the short position recommended on 06.04.21 at 146725 is still being held and other 50% of the position is being used to move in and out as per daily system signals.

Short signal given recommended at 14406.0 on 22.04.21, stop loss got triggered on 27.04.21 at 14530.

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

1. EICHER MOTORS: Recommended price 2593.0 to go short with stop loss of 2670.0 on 28.03.21. System gave an exit on 27.04.21 at 2400.10 achieving an absolute profit of 7.58% and exceeding Target 2 of 2434.2. Trade recommendation closed.

2. BAJAJ FINANCE: Recommended price to go short between 4690.0 to 4720.0 with stop loss of 4874.0 on 25.04.21. Stop loss was hit on 28.04.21 at 4915.0 resulting in an absolute loss of 4.80%. The stop loss was slightly higher due to fast movement. Trade recommendation closed. To be frank system signal was off the mark in this scrip.

3. DLF: Last close – 247.30. Recommended to go short on 25.04.21, on bounce till 252.0-256.0 levels with stop loss at 263.0. Continue to hold position.

Target1 – 225.0, Target 2 – 215.0, Leverage 0.1x.

Minimum profit potential – 10.7%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.07%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Down, Long term trend – Down.

4. GAIL: Last close – 137.20. Recommended to go short on 25.04.21 at 129.40 levels. System exit triggered on 28.04.21 at 133.35 resulting in absolute loss of 3.05%. Trade recommendation closed.

NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATION

1. ADANI PORT: Last close – 730.05. Recommended to go short at these levels with stop loss at 760.0. One needs to be patient with this trade because volatility is expected and it might not go immediately in the direction of the trade.

Target1 – 704.10, Target 2 – 686.0, Leverage 0.1x.

Minimum profit potential – 4.1%. Asset allocation profit potential – 0.41%. Most likely target 2 would be achieved.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Neutral, Long term trend – Up.

2. HDFC LTD.: Last close – 2420.0. Recommended to go short at these levels with stop loss at 2525.0

Target1 – 2278.0, Target 2 – 2232.0, Leverage 0.15x.

Minimum profit potential – 5.9%. Asset allocation profit potential – 0.59%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Neutral with downward tendencies, Long term trend – Up.

3. INFOSYS: LAST CLOSE – 1354.35. Recommended to go short at these levels with stop loss at 1396.0.

Target1 – 1293.0, Target 2 – 1260.0, Leverage 0.15x.

Minimum profit potential – 4.5%. Asset allocation profit potential – 0.70%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Neutral with downward tendencies, Long term trend – Up.

4. HERO MOTOCOP: LAST CLOSE – 2819.15. Recommended to go short at these levels with stop loss at 2922.0. Again, I would advice to be patient with volatility in the scrip before downward movement gathers steam. Exact pin point entries can only be made by checking systems daily. If there is a minor bounce it would be still better opportunity to short.

Target1 – 2733.0, Target 2 – 2548.0, Leverage 0.15x.

Minimum profit potential – 3.1%. Asset allocation profit potential – 0.50%. Most likely target 2 would be achieved.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Down, Long term trend – Down.

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 0.5x

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: 4.0%

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 3 DAYS TO 30 DAYS.

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 2.1X

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.pdf

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