QUANT SYSTEM TRADE UPDATE & MOCK PORTFOLIO -18.11.23

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

DISCLAIMER

Please be informed that the author of this blog by Capt Ganesh Raja Dhanuskodi (Hereinafter called Capt Ganesh) is not a SEBI registered Research Analyst or Financial Advisor. Capt Ganesh writes this blog to express his views based of more than two decades of experience in capital markets and based on the Quant system which he has invented and he does not do this for “consideration” as per SEBI regulations, which means he does not receive economic benefit through it. Readers of this blog must seek advice from registered Investment Advisors / Research Analysts before taking any trading or investment decisions.

Capt Ganesh has been investing and trading actively since 2001, building trading models since 2013 and has invented an AI based intraday trading system, which has a pending patent approval.

Dear Friends,

Hope you all had a lovely Diwali celebration though for me it was far from it, being stuck onboard far longer than what was initially promised. In shipping timely relief is one of the biggest problems and there are innumerable loopholes to arm-twist the seafarer to make them stay far beyond the standard tenure.

When I was a young seafarer (Not that I am old), I used to see the negative aspect of this career but the perception changed over the years. I owe everything to this career and it gave me so much opportunity grow in every aspect. Also being alone gives a lot of time to reflect on many topics and that’s how I could develop deep understanding of the markets. Out of the box thinking happens because you are literally out of the box. Having said that I do not recommend youngsters to choose this career because the general apathy of various stakeholders in shipping towards seafarers in spite of their invaluable role in keeping wheels of global commerce moving.

For now, I am right in the middle of action in big world of international oil trading. The negotiations have been so intense and exhaustive in addition to the very tough schedule onboard that sometimes I am surprised myself how I am able to balance it.

Bringing the discussions back to markets here are some inputs.

Annual retail price inflation in India fell to 4.87% in October 2023, the lowest in four months, compared to 5.02% in September and forecasts of 4.8%. Inflation has been in a fixed variance band ever since 2020 and there is scope for further moderation as per the inflation chart. We did not have a great monsoon due to the El Nino effect but the food price inflation is not a red flag for now. Maybe these are reflection in 10-year Government Security index, which I had indicated before as to be forming an unstable broadening top formation but for now it has given a breakout, supported by proprietary indicators.

Foreign inflow continues to be muted over concerns of an elevated interest rate and a global slowdown, however, the outflow in November has significantly moderated over lower US bond yields and declining crude oil prices.

Rupee has been holding steady, in spite of sizeable fund outflow by FIIs.

The general geopolitical outlook has been pretty gloomy ever since Israel- Hamas war broke out last month in addition to the already existing Ukraine-Russia conflict. In such a scenario, the chart formation of India Business Expectations Index (BEI) is what such a soothing sight. BEI is showing strong trend and high likelihood of surpassing the previous high seen in fourth quarter of 2021.

So for now the downward scenario in domestic market is negated. I had clearly stated in my previous post that we are not looking at a bull case scenario but also noteworthy to mention that there was no short signal as per system in the Nifty. For now, we still at the sidelines and wait for system trigger.

USD-INR: Last close – 83.27. System has given an exit in this currency pair since there is indications of the trend weakening and it might come back to the breakout range listlessly. This trade gave absolute profit of 0.43% and asset allocation profit of 0.22%.

GOLD: Last close – 60713.0. As a portfolio shock absorber Gold has been in the Mock portfolio as prompted by long term filters in the Quant system since 22.10.21. Follow up system triggers were also there in Gold, which gave a system exit on 19.05.23, But now system has given a buy trigger in Gold at these levels.

Target 1 – 62295.0 , Target 2 –62987.0, Leverage – 0.3x.

Minimum profit potential – 1.7% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.8 %.

Minor trend : Up , Intermediate trend : Up, Long term trend : Up

All trade signals valid as of today as per MOCK PORTFOLIO.

THERE ARE NO NEW SYSTEM TRIGGERS FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE SHORTLY.

RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 107.51% (AS OF FRIDAY 17.11.23 CLOSING)

LEVERAGE FOR EXISTING MOCK PORTFOLIO TRIGGERS: 1.35

SYSTEM EXIT DELEVERAGE 0.50

LEVERAGE FOR NEW MOCK PORTFOLIO TRIGGERS: 0.3

TOTAL LEVERAGE: 1.15

ASSET ALLOCATION PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR NEW PORTFOLIO TRIGGERS : 0.8%

TIME PERIOD OF TRADES RECOMMENDED : 15 DAYS TO 3 MONTHS.

MOCK PORTFOLIO.pdf

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