QUANT SYSTEM TRADE UPDATE - 24.02.22
- Capt D. Ganesh Raja
- Feb 24, 2022
- 2 min read
From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja
Dear Friends,
It has been a while since my Quant system has been indicating a short in Nifty and to be long in Gold and the results are there to see. To be precise system gave a short signal in Nifty on 08.02.22.
Also I am please to inform that I am taking part in an international trading competition following my Quant system and have built positions in similar lines to what I have been posting in this blog. I will attach a screen shot of the performance in the competition till date.
The Ukraine- Russia tensions have been brewing for some time, in addition to various other geo political events. US inflation has recently hit a 40-year high and sharp Fed intervention is expected in months to come. This is generally viewed as negative for emerging markets. Of course, we don’t know what is going to happen, but we go by system indications. The main problem is sticking to the system signals amidst various news flows, which is basically noise. Today Nifty dropped by 815.3 points i.e., 4.78%. Regular readers of this blogs might recollect that few weeks ago I had discussed VIX indicator, which I checked with proprietary filers was indicating possibility of spike up. In addition, 10-year Govt. Security index has been on a falling channel. The inflation expectation, again after checking through proprietary filters has also been indicating move up.
Coming to trade recommendations. I recommend to book profit in half of the Nifty shorts at today’s close at 16247.95 and continue holding shorts in the remaining half to ride out the intermediate trend in Nifty, which is towards the downside.
For the individual stock recommendations given till date, here is the update as follows:
1) Tata Motors: Long recommendation given on 17.01.22 and stop loss triggered on 22.02.22 at 478.25. Holding the position for over a month did not yield profit. This resulted in absolute loss of 8.9% and asset allocation loss of 1.78%, with a leverage of 0.2x.
2) Hindalco: Long recommendation given on 24.12.21 and system exit triggered today at 517.65. This resulted in absolute profit of 12.8% and asset allocation profit of 1.28%, with a leverage of 0.1x.
3) Action Construction Equipment: Long recommendation given on 17.01.22 and system exit triggered today at 211.35. This resulted in absolute loss of 12.16% and asset allocation loss of 1.22%, with a leverage of 0.1x.
4) Indian Hotels: Long recommendation given on 17.01.22 and system exit triggered today at 194.00. This resulted in absolute loss of 7.15% and asset allocation loss of 0.72%, with a leverage of 0.1x.
GOLD: Gold has given a strong breakout last week and continuing this week. In the international market USD 1850.0 per ounce was the strong resistance which has been broken to the upside and there are indications that it will sustain. For more than a year I have been bullish on Gold based on system indications and recent world events have acted as a trigger for an up move. We cannot say anything with too much certainty but maybe Gold in for the long haul. Hold on dearly to your Gold holdings.
RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 59.53% (AS OF TUESDAY 24.02.22 CLOSING)
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