QUANT SYSTEM TRADE UPDATE - 06.04.22

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

The week which passed was very tragic. I lost my childhood friend to cancer and we all knew it was coming but when the person passes away the reality hits you. My friend Indumathi Regunathan will live in my memories and may her soul attain “sadgati”. The way she fought till the end is something to be learnt from. I attended the cremation. Immediately post that I had to travel to Abu Dhabi for a marine assignment.

I reviewed the sharp upward movement of the market. Frankly there was no indication in the Quant system in the intermediate timeframe, however in the daily system there was a buy signal on 29.03.22 but as I had mentioned before giving recommendations on a shorter timeframe was not possible for me due to time constraints and in view of the above happenings. The same was the case with Bank Nifty, where I had given recommendation to go short but triggered stop loss at 37148.5 on 01.04.22. The short recommendation in Nifty given on 08.02.22 also resulted in system exit on 01.04.22 at 17670.45.

The recommendation to buy Bank Nifty 34500 strike put expiry 21.04.22 and selling Bank Nifty 38000 strike call expiry 13.04.22 also resulted in losses. I don’t have the exact details of these options prices for 01.04.22 but for records I enter 50% loss from the recommended price , though this might not be the case.

As you might have seen, in this volatile scenario the shorter timeframe recommendations have yielded profit and the intermediate timeframe recommendations have not only tested the patience but also resulted in losses. The timeframe one wants to trade is a personal choice of the trader. Having said that, if the downtrend in Nifty had persisted then holding the positions for longer timeframe would have yielded higher profit.

Without doing too much post mortem, we take this in our stride and look for further opportunities going forward.

Once in a while market whack you in the back, no matter how well designed the system is.

Readers would agree that through all different phases I have endeavored to share my views in an unbiased and honest manner, based on the various parameters of the Quant system. The results could have been much better if some trades could have been taken in shorter timeframes depending on the market scenario but readers would appreciate that I am travelling on Marine assignments frequently, where there is sometimes limited or no connectivity onboard ships and hence such close monitoring is not possible. Nevertheless, the returns have been respectable over these 20 odd months since I have been writing this blog.

For now, markets are in no trade zone after having triggered stop loss and system exits, so I will update in due course.

Gold: Last close – 51,266.0. There is no change in my view on Gold and continue to hold long positions.

RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 55.29% (AS OF TUESDAY 05.04.22 CLOSING)

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.pdf

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