QUANT SYSTEM TRADE UPDATE - 05.10.21

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

I have been monitoring the happenings in the market as well as geopolitical events and thought of updating at the appropriate time.

I want to make a frank disclosure that one might spend years designing a system but if one doesn’t have conviction to follow it then at critical junctures, we might not be able to follow it. Unfounded fears or greed takes over the rational decision-making process. Also let me tell you that there are multiple ways to process the same information. But the path less trodden finds lesser acceptance. But what about black swan events and unexpected market drops? That is part and parcel of this business. If one doesn’t want to deal with it, they have to find some other activity other than trading. Trading is one of the most humbling experiences.

The usual noise from news flow is continuing in the market. The trend in Nifty is intact in the weekly charts and some amount of correction was witnessed in the daily charts before markets bounced back.

There is an indication that the up move from here onwards will not be a smooth one but choppy. The VIX after a brief spike is again moving down and currently placed at 16.39.

GOLD: Last close – 46502.0. First signs of bottoming out in gold is being seen but more confirmation is required. I will update further on this. Long term investors can gradually start accumulating gold at these levels and people who have been holding for long can buy more and average their price.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

When signals are triggered mid-week, that is updated in log sheet and covered in the weekend report , due to paucity of time.

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

NOTE: Only stocks which have given an exit have been covered in this section and rest to be held as mentioned in Trade Recommendation Sheet.

1. L&T: Recommended to go long around 1596.0 levels on 29.07.21with stop loss at 1560.04, System gave an exit today at 1716.65 giving an absolute profit of 7.56%. Target 1 & 2 both were achieved but system has given exit below target 2. Trade recommendation closed.

2. HDFC LTD.: Recommended to go long on 12.08.21 at 2668.75 with stop loss at 2578.10. System gave an exit today at 2741.45 giving an absolute profit of 2.72%, which is much lower than target 1 which was achieved earlier. We are not making up excuses here because system gave a late exit yielding less profit and that is what we must consider. Trade recommendation closed.

3. BAJAJ FINANCE: Recommended to go at 6966.50 on 29.08.21 with stop loss at 6836.20. System gave an exit today at 7522.80 giving an absolute profit of 7.99%, which was slightly lower than target 1, which was achieved earlier. Trade recommendation closed.

NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATION

NONE

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: NA

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: NA

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 7 DAYS TO 45 DAYS.

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 1.55X

RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 63.36% (AS OF TUESDAY 05.10.21 CLOSING)

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.pdf

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