QUANT SYSTEM TRADE RECOMMENDATION - 27.10.21

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

As I had said before, if a trend is in progress there is no point in over analyzing markets, so decided to stay put with the recommendations. Marine Training related work also was keeping me busy

In the daily chart the “Three black crow” candlestick formation in the previous week (Basically three consecutive black candles with long real body), not seen since 17.03.21 and which is a bearish indicator as per daily chart. Is it the first sign of a correction? Frankly I don’t know. The daily volumes are not in line for a correction.

Moreover, as per weekly chart and filters there is no indication of the reversal of the uptrend. I would recommend to hold position for some more time. There could by multiple triggers which could start off a correction but it is anybody’s guess what that could be, Fed meeting, China Evergrande crisis and other issues there, border tension with China, some events domestically etc. etc. As per my experience the myriad news creates noise in the market and tends to distract the trader.

One factor which we should keep a close watch is the oil prices which have been on an upswing and is on the verge of breaching the levels last seen in mid-2014. Domestically it could pose problems as far as inflation is concerned. The next OPEC meet is on 4.11.2021 and the meeting minutes would give a clue to the price direction.

Market is placed at a very crucial Fibonacci level as per base wave oscillations, between the period 23.03.20 to 18.05.20. Also, symmetry in price and time is an important turning point indicator and market has cleared one time zone which was on 30.08.21 and the next time zone is 31.12.21. These are some of the syntheses which I keep doing periodically and just thought of sharing with you all.

The 10-year Government bond price chart is showing a shallow downward channel and weekly filters are indicating a lower level.

So, the interplay of factors will determine the course for the market and we will watch closely.

GOLD: In my previous report dated 05.10.2021 I had informed that long term investors can again start accumulating Gold. Personally, I have increased allocation to Gold, basically “walking the talk”. System gave a buy signal in Gold on previous week’s close on 22.10.21, at 47,797.0, with a stop loss at 47120.0.

Target1 – 50685.0, Target 2 – 54541.0, Leverage 0.30x.

Minimum profit potential – 6%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.8%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Neutral with upward bias, long term trend – Neutral with upward bias.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

When signals are triggered mid-week, that is updated in log sheet and covered in the weekend report, due to paucity of time.

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

Refer to “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG”

NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATION

NONE

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: NA

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: NA

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 7 DAYS TO 45 DAYS.

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 1.85X

RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 64.62% (AS OF TUESDAY 26.10.21 CLOSING)

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.pdf

Download PDF • 582KB