QUANT SYSTEM TRADE RECOMMENDATION - 20.06.21
- Capt D. Ganesh Raja
- Jun 20, 2021
- 5 min read
From the desk of Capt. D.Ganesh Raja
Dear Friends,
As discussed last week the markets corrected by about 200 points on a day closing basis, since intraday gyrations are not taken into account. Fed meeting announcement last week, which has a big effect on world markets caused sharp movements. The effect could also be seen on Gold and Silver. On Friday close, on daily chart it formed a hammer pattern on 13 days EMA, which indicates the uptrend will resume. We don’t know the scale and intensity of the up move though and will have to make a fresh synthesis as market action progresses.
As of now most the recommendations given have undergone a correction in line with markets and since we were demonstrating the long-term potential of the Quant system, in spite of the daily system indicating an exit which would have given a higher profit, staying true to it I have maintained “Hold” recommendation in most of the stocks. Going forward if the long-term components indicate an exit, we will do so.
Gold: Gold suffered a breakdown from a very narrow band, indicating it has rejected higher prices and going in for a pattern consolidation, so for short term traders it is an exit for now resulting in minor loss. For long term investors every dip can be a buying opportunity gradually. Gold is a portfolio stabiliser in volatile times and doesn’t hurt holding some in one’s portfolio. Fundamentally Fed meet indications that they want to gradually increase interest rate to target a 2% inflation till 2024 was a negative development for Gold and Silver. As I have said before, events and their impact are not a part of the Quant system, rather myriad filters are used in decision making process. There are enough players in the market doing that.
Silver: The breakdown in Silver was dramatic and which has been exhibited many times before but for now it has smacked the short-term trader.
Note for reading this report:
Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis
Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.
Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.
When signals are triggered mid-week, that is updated in log sheet and covered in the weekend report , due to paucity of time.
MARKET & NIFTY OVERVIEW
Nifty: LAST CLOSE – 15683.35. System gave long signal in on 07.05.21 at 14823.15. Continue holding long position. As of now there is an absolute profit of 5.83%. Short term traders can keep a profit protection stop at 15514.0. As of now even target 3 has been achieved on 11.06.21.
Target1 – 15350.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 15535.0 (Achieved), Target 3 – 15834 (Achieved), Leverage 1.0x
Minimum profit potential – 3.5% (Achieved). Asset allocation profit potential – 3.5% (Achieved).
Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.
GOLD: System gave long signal on 07.05.21 at 47751.0, with a stop loss at 46650.0. System exit triggered in Gold at 47147.0 on 18.06.21 resulting in an absolute loss of 1.26%. Trade recommendation closed. Long term investors continue to accumulate as discussed above. In this trade profit became loss and once in while markets tend to throw up surprises in contrary to system readings. The same surprises are on positive side also.
SILVER: LAST CLOSE –System gave a buy signal in Silver on 05.05.21 at 67524.0 with stop loss at 67200.0 and again on 13.06.21 at 71999.0, with stop loss at 70239.0. System exit triggered in Silver at 68417.0 on 18.06.21 resulting in absolute loss of 4.79% in the combined position. Trade recommendation closed.
EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW
1. BAJAJ AUTO: LAST CLOSE – 4177.50. System gave a buy signal on 07.05.21 at 3856.75 with stop loss at 3794.0 and presently at an absolute profit of 8.31%. Target 1 was achieved on 27.05.21. Positional traders can continue to hold long position.
Target 1 : 4231.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 4425.0, Target 3 – 4400.0, Target 4 – 4950.0
Minimum profit potential – 9.7% (Achieved). Asset allocation profit potential – 1.5%.
Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Neutral, Long term trend – Up.
2. BPCL: LAST CLOSE – 472.33. System gave a buy signal on 07.05.21 at 443.15 with stop loss at 424.15 and presently at an absolute profit of 6.58%. Target 1 was achieved on 27.05.21 but continue to hold long position, with profit protection stop at 467.00.
Target1 – 480.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 533.0, Leverage 0.15x.
Minimum profit potential – 8.3% (Achieved). Asset allocation profit potential – 1.20%.
Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.
3. DLF: LAST CLOSE – 294.85. Recommended to go long around 270.0 levels on 23.05.21 with stop loss at 250.0 and presently at an absolute profit of 9.20%. Target 1 was achieved on 08.06.21. I had recommended to hold long position, with profit protection stop at 298.35, but would recommend to continue to hold long position.
Target1 – 304.10, (Achieved) Target 2 – 323.35, Leverage 0.05x.
Minimum profit potential – 12.0%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.5%.
Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.
4. HDFC LTD.: Recommended to go long on 23.05.21 at 2518.85 with stop loss at 2440.10 and system exit triggered on 18.06.21 at 2488.10 resulting in absolute loss of 1.22%. Trade recommendation closed.
5. LIC HSG. FIN, LAST CLOSE – 470.40. Recommended to go long at 456.05 on 23.05.21 with stop loss at 420.0 and presently at an absolute profit of 3.15%. Target 1 has been achieved on 04.06.21. I had recommended to hold long position, with profit protection stop at 480.58, but would recommend to continue to hold long position.
Target1 – 500.10 (Achieved), Target 2 – 566.20, Leverage 0.10x.
Minimum profit potential – 9.6%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.0%.
Minor trend: Neutral , Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.
6. L&T: LAST CLOSE – 1479.10. Recommended to go long at 1418.05 on 23.05.21 with stop loss at 1368.20 and presently at an absolute profit of 4.31 %. Target 1 has been achieved on 04.06.21 but continue to hold long position, with profit protection stop at 1455.0.
Target1 – 1521.10 (Achieved), Target 2 – 1605.0, Leverage 0.15x.
Minimum profit potential – 7.3%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.10%.
Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.
7. TATA MOTORS: LAST CLOSE – 337.40. Recommended to go at 313.10 on 30.05.21 with stop loss at 285.0 and at presently an absolute profit of 7.76%. Continue to hold long position.
Target1 – 370.0, Target 2 – 424.0, Leverage 0.20x.
Minimum profit potential – 18.2%. Asset allocation profit potential – 3.6%.
Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.
8. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES: LAST CLOSE – 2225.65. Recommended to go long at 2094.80 on 30.05.21 with stop loss at 1990.0 and at presently an absolute profit of 6.25%. Target 1 was achieved on 03.06.21 but continue to hold long position.
Target1 – 2200.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 2320.0, Leverage 0.20x.
Minimum profit potential – 5.0%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.0%.
Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend –Up.
9. KOTAK BANK.: LAST CLOSE – 1760.45. Recommended to go at 1800.75 on 30.05.21 with stop loss at 1705.0 and system exit triggered on 18.06.21 at 1760.45 resulting in an absolute loss of 2.24%. Trade recommendation closed.
10. COAL INDIA: LAST CLOSE – Recommended to go long at 146.90 on 30.05.21 with stop loss at 137.10. Profit protection stop triggered on 16.06.21 at 155.35 resulting in a an absolute profit of 5.89%. Trade recommendation closed.
NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATION
No new recommendations to make.
TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: NA
COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: NA
TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 7 DAYS TO 60 DAYS.
TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 2.0
RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 38.26%
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