QUANT SYSTEM TRADE RECOMMENDATION 16.08.2020 & NIFTY OVERVIEW

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja REPORT DATE: 16.08.2020

Good morning friends,

There was a some connectivity issues on the web hosting server due to which this report could not be uploaded yesterday.

We are changing the format of the report to give a little more detailed view of the trade recommendations. Nifty has been covered separately since it is the main index.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

NIFTY OVERVIEW

Nifty has been facing resistance around 11300 levels and moved down on Friday from those levels , last close – 11178.40. Following factors need to be taken into effect:

i) The move on Friday was a power candle from a tight congestion zone.

ii) Daily MACD has shown divergence at 11300 levels.

iii) Daily trend line broken to the downside and testing of the trend line from underside is complete.

Going by the base wave structure, Nifty is likely to go into a correction. Proprietary indicators are indicating a downside move of 310 points.

Summary: Short Nifty between 11247 to 11120 price zone with a stop loss at 11412.

Target1 – 11850 Target 2 – NA. Minimum profit potential – 2.93%. Leverage – 1x.

Minor trend: Topping indications and downward bias, Intermediate trend: Up, Long term trend: Down with bottoming

out Indications.

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

1. USD – INR: Last close – 75.02. Continue to hold short position in this currency pair with stop loss at 75.89. target 1 – 72.0

Target 2 – NA. Minimum profit potential – 3.79%. Leverage – 0.5x.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend: Bottoming out indication , Long term trend: Down with bottoming out indications.

2. GOLD: Last close – 55845 (MCX PRICE). Recommended price- 48878. In the last week’s report it was informed to continue to hold long positions for long term asset allocation, however Target 1 has been achieved on 06.08.20 where short term traders could have booked profit. It was also informed that for people wanting to do fresh buying to wait for dips. As informed Gold prices corrected from the highs and it might continue to drift a bit lower which to 51500 levels which can be an accumulation zone for long term investors.

Target 1- 55630.0 (achieved) target 2 – 66875.0. Minimum profit potential – 13.81%. (Achieved) leverage – 0.3X. Gold is in a very strong long term trend and till there is any signs of long term reversals the long positions must be held by investors.

Minor trend: Up. Intermediate trend: Up. Long term trend: Up

3. TATA STEEL : Last close – 404.05. Recommended price – 350.95. Tata Steel profit booking as per system on Friday closing at 418.50 and trade clsoed. At the moment reward to risk is not in favour of continuing to hold long positions. Target 1 – 362.0 (Achieved) Target 2 – 385 (Achieved) Target 3 – N.A.

4. DLF: Recommended price – 138.90. Stop loss triggered on 10.08.20 at 143.10 and short trade closed.

5. GAIL: Last close – 95.95. Recommended price – 96.60. Continue holding short position with stop loss at 102.5. It is at an absolute profit of 0.72% from recommended price. Following factors favour to hold short position and increase leverage to 0.2x for this trade:

i) Head and shoulders topping pattern with a power candle move.

ii) 26 week EMA sell signal

iii) Extremely oversold weekly Williams %R indicator.

iv) Proprietary filters indicating strong downward movement.

Target 1 – 90.0 target 2 – 81.2, Leverage – 0.2x (Leverage increased from 0.1)

Minimum profit potential – 6.78%. There is a good probability of Target 2 being achieved.

6. BAJAJ FINANCE: Recommended price 3464.30 . System exit triggered on 13.08.20 at 3419.55 and long trade closed.

7. GRASIM: Last close – 628.95. Recommended price -636.55. Continue holding long position with stop loss of 617.00 in view of the following factors:

i) Bottoming out indications with trend reversal possibilities in long term weekly charts.

ii) Daily chart indicating a narrow continuity congestion band indicating a resolution with a upward breakout setting off a strong intermediate trend. This might be contra market move.

iii) Propreitary Bollinger band based indicators seems to be confirming upward breakout.

Target 1 – 663.0 Target 2 – 690.0, Leverage – 0.20x

Minimum profit potential – 4.15%. There is a good probability of target 2 being achieved.

Minor trend : Neutral, Intermediate trend : Up, Long term trend : Down with bottoming out indications.

8. HERO MOTOCOP: Recommended price – 2706.20. Stop loss triggered on 12.08.20 at 2760 and short trade closed.

9. HDFC BANK: Last close – 1034.45. Recommended price – 1043.85. The following factors favour to continue holding short position and increase leverage to 0.2x , with a stop loss at 1067.00:

i) As per Elliot wave system corrective wave “c” seems to be developing which can give a strong downward movement.

ii) Weekly charts and W%R indicator indicating a strong downward move.

iii) Weekly MACD indicator has peaked and turned down.

Target 1 – 981.0 Target 2 – 956.0, Leverage – 0.10x

Minimum profit potential – 6.02%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend: Down, Long term trend: Neutral.

NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

1) NIFTY : Short trade as recommended above.

2) GAIL : Leverage has been increased from 0.1x to 0.2x.

3) HDFC BANK: Leverage has been increased from 0.1x to 0.2x

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 1.2x

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: N.A.

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 7 DAYS TO 30 DAYS

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 2.10X

PROFIT / LOSS TILL DATE BASED ON ALL TRADES BASED ON ASSET ALLOCATION: 11.19%

PERIOD IN WHICH ABOVE RESULT WAS ACHIEVED: 8 WEEKS

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.xlsx

Download XLSX • 27KB