QUANT SYSTEM TRADE RECOMMENDATION-13.06.21

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

The markets are more or less moving in line with what I had written about last week. In the daily chart there is a indication of 200 point correction, also confirmed by a spinning top candlestick, which generally indicates indecisiveness in that time frame.

The intermediate trend is still up as per weekly charts. It is one of the beauties of the market how it behaves in different timeframe, thereby clearly demarcating its participants, where it overall aligns with their objectives. The unfolding of the trend in itself is a mystery as far my experience of past two decades is concerned. We all might come out with different theories, conclusively arguing that to be the underlying reason, including yours truly, but markets are much more than that. One has to develop a healthy respect towards it.

If you are a trader monitoring intraday charts, you can short Nifty with stop loss at 15850, but if you ask me, frankly it is not worth the trouble. Based on my weekly filters, I see another 350-point rally in Nifty till 16050 for now. It is definitely not advisable to short against the intermediate uptrend. To sum it up, hold Nifty long positions.

I am also not recommending any new stocks because the existing recommendations are still valid and have potential to go up. There is no point in rotating the stocks unless very strong reasons suggest to do so. There will come a time when the intermediate trend will mature and then maybe we can look into it. Some of the recommended scrips have given up some gains and are in consolidation mode.

The Quant system components have deep insights into various industry and economic parameters , for which I intend to devote time. The process being very rigorous would take some time. Based on this it could give clues about asset cycles based on which strategic long term asset allocations. The only issue is it needs loads of patience to play out these cycles, which might not be suitable for people with short term trading goals. I will quote a great trader who said “You cannot have short term and long term returns at the same time”.

Gold: It is fluctuating in a very narrow band, indicating consolidation is in progress before resuming uptrend. All weekly filters indicating uptrend are intact So short term traders can continue holding to long positions.

Silver: Silver is behaving in a similar manner to Gold. No fresh inputs from my side and I stick to the views presented few weeks ago. Long positions can be added as indicated below.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

When signals are triggered mid-week, that is updated in log sheet and covered in the weekend report , due to paucity of time.

MARKET & NIFTY OVERVIEW

Nifty: LAST CLOSE – 15799.35. System gave long signal in on 07.05.21 at 14823.15. Continue holding long position. As of now there is an absolute profit of 6.59%. Short term traders can keep a profit protection stop at 15514.0. As of now even target 3 has been achieved on 11.06.21.

Target1 – 15350.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 15535.0 (Achieved), Target 3 – 15834 (Achieved), Leverage 1.0x

Minimum profit potential – 3.5% (Achieved). Asset allocation profit potential – 3.5% (Achieved).

Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

GOLD: LAST CLOSE – 49,198.0. System gave long signal on 07.05.21 at 47751.0. with a stop loss at 46650.0. Presently at an absolute profit of 3.03%. Continue to hold long position in Gold.

Target1 – 49400.0, Target 2 – 50200.00, Leverage 0.3x

Minimum profit potential – 3.5%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1%.

Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

SILVER: LAST CLOSE – 71999.0. System gave a buy signal in Silver on 05.05.21 at 67524.0 with stop loss at 67200.0 and presently at an absolute profit of 6.63%. Short term traders can further add to long position at these levels with stop loss of 70329.0 and a leverage of 0.2x.

Target1 – 76219.0, Target 2 – 79141.0, Leverage 0.2x

Minimum profit potential – 11.5%. Asset allocation profit potential – 2.3%.

Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

1. BAJAJ AUTO: LAST CLOSE – 4172.50. System gave a buy signal on 07.05.21 at 3856.75 with stop loss at 3794.0 and presently at an absolute profit of 8.19%. Target 1 was achieved on 27.05.21. Last week I had recommended to exit if it closes below 4199. The oscillators are extremely oversold at these levels so a strong bounce cannot be ruled out. Positional traders can continue to hold long position.

Target 1 : 4231.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 4425.0, Target 3 – 4400.0, Target 4 – 4950.0

Minimum profit potential – 9.7% (Achieved). Asset allocation profit potential – 1.5%.

Minor trend: Down, Intermediate trend – Up , Long term trend – Up.

2. BPCL: LAST CLOSE – 483.60. System gave a buy signal on 07.05.21 at 443.15 with stop loss at 424.15 and presently at an absolute profit of 9.11%. Target 1 was achieved on 27.05.21 but continue to hold long position, with profit protection stop at 467.00.

Target1 – 480.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 533.0, Leverage 0.15x.

Minimum profit potential – 8.3% (Achieved). Asset allocation profit potential – 1.20%.

Minor trend: Up , Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

3. DLF: LAST CLOSE – 310.25. Recommended to go long around 270.0 levels on 23.05.21with stop loss at 250.0 and presently at an absolute profit of 14.91%. Target 1 was achieved on 08.06.21. Continue to hold long position, with profit protection stop at 298.35.

Target1 – 304.10, (Achieved) Target 2 – 323.35, Leverage 0.05x.

Minimum profit potential – 12.0%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.5%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

4. HDFC LTD.: LAST CLOSE – 2599.80. Recommended to go long on 23.05.21 at 2518.85 with stop loss at 2440.10 and presently at an absolute profit of 3.21%. Continue to hold long position.

Target1 – 2595.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 2695.0, Leverage 0.15x.

Minimum profit potential – 3.0%. Asset allocation profit potential – 0.5%.

Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

5. LIC HSG. FIN, LAST CLOSE – 522.15. Recommended to go long at 456.05 on 23.05.21 with stop loss at 420.0 and presently at an absolute profit of 14.49%. Target 1 has been achieved on 04.06.21 but Continue to hold long position, with profit protection stop at 480.58.

Target1 – 500.10 (Achieved), Target 2 – 566.20, Leverage 0.10x.

Minimum profit potential – 9.6%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.0%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

6. L&T: LAST CLOSE – 1503.45. Recommended to go at 1418.05 on 23.05.21 with stop loss at 1368.20 and presently at an absolute profit of 6.02 %. Target 1 has been achieved on 04.06.21 but Continue to hold long position, with profit protection stop at 1455.0. As per daily charts trend seems to have ended and might g for consolidation, but the weekly filters are still indicating uptrend.

Target1 – 1521.10 (Achieved), Target 2 – 1605.0, Leverage 0.15x.

Minimum profit potential – 7.3%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.10%.

Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

7. TATA MOTORS: LAST CLOSE – 350.75. Recommended to go at 313.10 on 30.05.21 with stop loss at 285.0 and at presently an absolute profit of 12.02%. Continue to hold long position.

Target1 – 370.0, Target 2 – 424.0, Leverage 0.20x.

Minimum profit potential – 18.2%. Asset allocation profit potential – 3.6%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

8. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES: LAST CLOSE – 2213.5. Recommended to go long at 2094.80 on 30.05.21 with stop loss at 1990.0 and at presently an absolute profit of 5.05%. Target 1 was achieved on 03.06.21 but continue to hold long position.

Target1 – 2200.0 (Achieved), Target 2 – 2320.0, Leverage 0.20x.

Minimum profit potential – 5.0%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.0%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend –Up.

9. KOTAK BANK.: LAST CLOSE – 1794.35. Recommended to go at 1800.75 on 30.05.21 with stop loss at 1705.0 and presently at a loss of 0.36%. Continue to hold long position.

Target1 – 1982.0, Target 2 – 2120.0, Leverage 0.10x.

Minimum profit potential –10.1%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.5%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Neutral with upward tendencies, Long

term trend – Neutral.

10. COAL INDIA: LAST CLOSE – 162.65. Recommended to go long at 146.90 on 30.05.21 with stop loss at 137.10 and at presently an absolute profit of 10.72%. Continue to hold long position with profit protection stop at 155.0

Target1 – 173.10, Target 2 – NA, Leverage 0.10x.

Minimum profit potential –17.8%. Asset allocation profit potential – 1.5%.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend – Up, Long term trend – Up.

NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATION

I have recommended to add to position in Silver. Rest all other existing trade positions have been recommended to be held, no new recommendations to make.

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 0.2x

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: 5.86%

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 7 DAYS TO 60 DAYS.

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 2.85X

RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 46.72%

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.pdf

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