QUANT SYSTEM TRADE RECAP - 18.12.22
- Capt D. Ganesh Raja
- Dec 18, 2022
- 3 min read
From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja DATE: 18.12.22
Dear friends,
It has been a few weeks since I came back from my marine assignment and I just thought to take some time off and spend quality time with my family in this festive season. And mind you, since I am a football aficionado, I am enjoying every bit of Football world cup and rooting for my icon Leo Messi’s Argentina to win today. These are the joys of life which one must relish.
During my last assignment I did not have any connectivity for good part of the assignment and the brief moments I used to get cell phone connectivity, was when my ship called base for routine operations. In this scenario I did not have access to my systems to predict the market movements. However, prior to my departure for my assignment I had done a careful study and had few data points. Based on this I had given a buy call on Nifty on 6th of September 2022 at 17250 levels. You would be wondering that stating an event after it has happened has no meaning at all. Just to allay your doubts, I had sent a message to a friend of mine through WhatsApp with recommendation to go long on Nifty and I’m attaching the screenshot as a proof about what I had said at that point of time. I have these connectivity constraints due to my core activity which is marine related assignments and I have to work around these constraints. Nevertheless, the system has again given the correct indication in spite the challenging geopolitical issues.
Some of my friends had been suggesting me to give frequent calls through my blog which would generate more interest. I deeply respect their advice, but in my opinion, if a system is robust and able to generate reasonably good returns over an intermediate time frame, with adequate safety measure for capital and minimal activity, then that is best suited for deploying large amount of funds. That is the reason I have refrained from giving frequent calls. Also, it would not be possible during periods where I have no connectivity at al. To stand out, one needs to follow one’s own conviction to its logical end. My own financial decisions are largely fashioned around these ideas and it has been quite profitable. There was lot of fear when Russia-Ukraine war was intense and many were predicting the worst, but I stayed put on my equity investments. However, since the real estate market also was showing signs of uptrend and a property which my family had been wanting to own for quite a while, came for sale, I had to dilute part of the portfolio to invest into that.
Few of my friends who have immense experience in financial markets and interact with diverse cross section of investors, were saying that many are skeptical to invest at these high levels in the market and would like to wait and watch. Few months ago, when market dipped close to 17000 levels, the investors were expecting markets to come to much lower levels. So, the crux of the matter is, unless we have definitive decision-making tools these doubts will plague our minds. The only way to win investor confidence is to demonstrate in real time, albeit this process requires patience.
NIFTY: Last close- 18269.00. The target of the previous high of 18500, given on 06.09.22, has been achieved on 25.11.22. We might see minor profit-booking or even directionless trading band due to year end and long holidays in most part of the world, especially in US and European regions.
GOLD: Last close – 54300.00. People who have been reading this blog would know that I have been bullish on Gold for quite a while now and I haven’t bothered about minor dips in-between. My personal allocation to Gold has been able to generate a return of 13% in the past year.
Gold seems to be getting ready for a breakout and thereafter begin fresh uptrend. Quant system has given a very strong buy signal in Gold and probably some real good times are ahead for the yellow metal.
As far as the previous recommendations I had given, prior leaving for my assignment, I have updated the TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG, exactly entering dates of profit booking, stop loss trigger etc. by viewing historical data and updating accordingly.
In the international trading competition, my rank has dropped to 47760 out of 677800 players, again since I was not having any internet connectivity to put any meaningful trades. I am not taking this as a setback since I intend to start afresh.
I hope to connect with you all soon.
RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 72.83% (AS OF FRIDAY 16.12.22 CLOSING)
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