MARKETS ARE CHURNING - 04.10.2020

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

I am due for travelling again soon for my next Marine assignment, where I might not even access to market data. Maybe I will be able to share one more report before proceeding on my assignment, which might last till first week December at least.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

MARKET & NIFTY OVERVIEW

Nifty Last close – 11416. I had indicated in my last week’s report that we should look for short positions in Nifty between 11300-11400. Exact entry point can only be determined by checking daily charts and running proprietary filters on them. Still there is no clear shorting signal based on this. Also the strength of the current up move might prompt me to recount the wave structure and to re assess in due course whether to trade on the long side or short side. I have run various filters across different timeframes and the ambiguity in the wave structure is something which cannot be ignored.

Being too confident about anything is a recipe for disaster and the classic principle in technical analysis that “Let the market movement determine the way to trade” is what I am demonstrating.

Conclusion: Nifty is in no trade zone.

Minor trend: Neutral, Intermediate trend: Neutral, Long term trend: Down with bottoming out Indications.

Also I am refraining from making trade recommendations on individual stocks due to risk reward not being in favour .

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

1. USD – INR: Last close – 73.34. Recommended price to go short (On 04.07.20) – 74.84 Continue to hold short position in this currency pair with profit protection stop at 74.17. Traders who wish to take fresh short position can make an entry around this price.

Target 1 – 72.0 Target 2 – NA. Minimum profit potential – 3.79%. Leverage – 0.5x.

Minor trend: Up, Intermediate trend: Up , Long term trend: Up

2. GOLD: Last close – 50470 (MCX PRICE). Gold is still undergoing a correction in the daily timeframe and there seems to be a bounce from important support level. There is still some time left for the uptrend to resume and we are seeing buying opportunities as I have been saying for past few weeks.

In my previous week’s report I have given an elaborate synthesis favoring long side trade in Gold. All the conditions are still valid.

Minor trend: Neutral. Intermediate trend: Down. Long term trend: Up

3. INDIAN HOTELS: Last close – 97. Recommended price – 93.0 to 98.0 to go long. The trade recommendation is still valid.

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: N.A.

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: N.A.

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 7 DAYS TO 30 DAYS

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 0.55X

PROFIT / LOSS TILL DATE BASED ON ALL TRADES BASED ON ASSET ALLOCATION: 13.91%

PERIOD IN WHICH ABOVE RESULT WAS ACHIEVED: 11 WEEKS

NOTE1: DUE TO TRVELLING COMMITEMENTS NO NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS WERE MADE FROM 26.08.20 TO 28.09.20 AND HENCE THIS PERIOD IS EXCLUDED FROM CALCULATION

NOTE2: DUE TO ERROR IN SPREADHSEET THE RETURNS FIGURE REPORTED LAST WEEK WAS INACCURATE, WHICH HAS BEEN RECTIFIED.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.xlsx

Download XLSX • 20KB