MARKET VIEW & TRADE RECOMMENDATION 21.03.21

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

Dear Friends,

In my last week’s report I had said that Markets are going through a flux phase without any clear indication. However things look a bit different now. We have divergence in weekly W%R and MACD, but doesn’t indicate to be a severe correction. There is hanging man and shooting star candle pattern seen in weekly charts, indicating very strong resistance at 15370 levels. It is not a great setup for a convincing short trade but not a bad one either. Daily stochastics is below 20 and rising , which I greatly respect for giving a minor upside movement till 14850-14900, which is the level where risk/reward would be favourable for a short trade. The exact level to short can be determined only by monitoring daily. In these levels, 11 of my proprietary indicators are showing short side trade, so I might as well stick my hand out and say that we need to short the market. Some of you might think what if I go wrong, but playing safe and talking technical jargon just decorates ego and doesn’t do any good.

In a market scenario like this it is very important to monitor daily and pin point the exact entries. My other activities does not permit time to do this, moreover I would be travelling again for my Marine assignments soon.

Gold: Last close – 44931.0 (MCX PRICE). Gold has forming a series of narrow body candles on the lower line of the down trending channel , which has been in formation since 14.08.20. Short term traders can go long at this price with stop loss at 44150.0, since some daily indicators seem favourable. Having said that it doesn’t indicate to be a vigorous move. For long-term investors gradual accumulation has to continue.

Target 1 – 47237.0, Target 2 – To be updated , Leverage -0.2x.

Note for reading this report:

Note1: The stop losses are on end of day basis

Note2: When trade recommendation is given around a certain price, it means that the trade may be taken the next trading day or if a price zone is given for taking a trade then trade has to be taken on the day price reaches within that zone.

Note3: A separate excel sheet is attached to view the performance of the recommendations, which also reduces the task of individually reporting the performance of each trade recommendation. Viewing the excel sheet “TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG” will be self-explanatory. Also in this sheet Trade recommendations which are still active are marked.

MARKET & NIFTY OVERVIEW

Nifty Last close – 14744.00. As discussed above look for shorting Nifty at 14850 levels, when the market bounces, with stop loss at 15120.

Conclusion: Short Nifty during bounce.

Target 1 – 14550, Target 2 – To be updated , Leverage -0.5x

EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW

1. BAJAJ AUTO: Recommended price – 3820.0 to 3905.0 to go short on 07.03.21, with stop loss 3995.0. Target of 3735.82 was achieved but system gave an exit on 18.03.21 at 3664.50, resulting in an absolute profit of 4.89%. Trade closed.

2. COAL INDIA: Recommended price – 149.3 to 152.40.0 to go long on 07.03.21, with stop loss 144.10. System exit was triggered on 12.03.21 at 150.50 but we will call it as stop loss triggered since the signal was from weekly system, so it is fair to book a higher loss. Stop loss triggered on 17.03.21 resulting in an absolute loss of 4.63%. Trade closed.

3. SBI: Last close – 371.15. Recommended price – 382.90 to 385.0 to go short on 07.03.21, with stop loss 403.50. Presently on an absolute profit of 3.26%. Continue to hold short position.

Target 1 – 340 , Target 2 – NA, Leverage – 0.05x

Minimum profit potential – 11.37% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.56%

Minor trend : Down, Intermediate trend : Up, Long term trend : Up.

4. DLF: Last close - 308.5. Recommended price – 311.0 to 307.0 to go short, with stop loss 324.0. Presently on an absolute profit of 6.84%. Continue to hold short position.

Target 1 – 293.0 , Target 2 – NA, Leverage – 0.05x

Minimum profit potential – 5.0% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.25%.

Minor trend : Down, Intermediate trend : Neutral with downward tendency, Long term trend : Up.

5. HCL TECH: Last close – 960.45. Recommended price – 971.0 to 986.0 to go long, with stop loss 949.0. Presently on an absolute loss of 1.95%. Continue to hold long position.

Target 1 – 1055.95 , Target 2 – NA, Leverage – 0.10x

Minimum profit potential – 7.8% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.78%

Minor trend : Neutral, Intermediate trend : Up, Long term trend : Up.

6. MARUTI SUZUKI: Last close – 7113.55. Recommended price – 7120.0 to 7180.0 to go short, with stop loss of 7380.0. Presently on an absolute profit of 0.09%. Continue to hold short position.

Target 1 – 6845.0, Target 2 – NA, Leverage – 0.10x

Minimum profit potential – 3.90% , Asset allocation profit potential – 0.39%

Minor trend : Down, Intermediate trend : Neutral , Long term trend : Neutral.

NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATION

New trade recommendations in Nifty and Gold as discussed above.

TOTAL LEVERAGE OF ABOVE NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 0.70x

COMBINED PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE TRADES: 2.3%

TIME WINDOW OF TRADES: 10 DAYS TO 30 DAYS

TOTAL LEVERAGE INCLUDING UNCLOSED POSITIONS AS PER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATION: 1.0x

SINCE 04.07.2021 THE QUANT SYSTEM HAS DELIVERED A RETURNS OF 26.12%, EXCLUDING THREE AND HALF MONTHS OF MY TRAVEL WHEN I HAD NOT MONITORED MARKETS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION LOG.pdf

Download PDF • 567KB